Remarks by Amin H. Nasser at the 2025 Energy Intelligence Forum

Good morning Ladies and Gentlemen.

Thank you to Raja, Lara, Alex, and your colleagues at Energy Intelligence for the opportunity to discuss the energy challenges of our time. When the history of the global energy transition is written, I believe historians will view this current period as the defining moment.

A moment when the world learned the truth about progress. The big promise was abundant, affordable, and secure energy; new jobs; and lower emissions.

Instead, more than a decade later, costs are rising, grids are fragile, and emissions are not falling – even in the Global North where alternatives and renewables have been most actively promoted.

In the EU, industrial gas and electricity prices are two to four times higher than its main trading partners. Instead of the promised wave of green jobs and competitive industries, investors and companies are unfortunately waving goodbye.

And with geopolitical, trade, and economic uncertainties compounding the situation, consumers are rightly angry as the transition hype has not been matched by reality on the ground. 

If the developed world is struggling with higher energy costs, let alone wholesale de-industrialization, the developing world stands no chance. And it shows why the current transition plan never stood a chance either.

The targets and the pace were so unrealistic, and the cost too high. But while EVs, solar, and wind were given star billing, the enduring role of hydrocarbons was the unwanted guest at the transition party.

Yet endure they have.

Over the past decade, global primary energy demand has risen by the equivalent of around 40 million barrels of oil per day. Hydrocarbons supplied two-thirds of that growth, despite 11 trillion dollars being spent on transition.

And that’s just the growth. In total, the world consumes 340 million barrels of oil equivalent daily. Hydrocarbons still supply 80 percent of this energy, with oil, gas, and coal continuing to break new records. So this is not even a phase-down of hydrocarbons, let alone a phase out.

Furthermore, this hydrocarbon resurgence highlights the limited progress of those icons of the energy transition I mentioned: EVs, solar, and wind. EVs still represent less than 6 percent of the global light duty vehicle fleet, despite all the investments and subsidies.

Renewables have made more progress, but face a ceiling in the grid because intermittency is their Achilles’ heel when the wind stops, the sun sets, or winter clouds.

Without large-scale economic storage, every additional unit of solar and wind intensifies grid instability, forcing the system to lean more on gas and coal. Indeed, in some places, coal still accounts for two-thirds of the power generation mix.

So there are situations where the growth in EVs and electricity-driven technologies is actually adding to emissions, not reducing them. This is the less visible face of the energy transition.

There are other fast-moving realities the transition will have to contend with. Living standards in developing countries, especially in Asia, are rising. Growth forecasts contend that there will be many more EVs.

And, by 2030, the entire data center ecosystem could be consuming up to four times more electricity than the entire global battery EV fleet!

However welcome, this demand tsunami promises to overwhelm grids and further increase emissions. In short, much of the promised progress has not been delivered, with many unintended consequences.

Thankfully, it is finally shifting the narrative in three key ways.

First, while EVs and renewables are growing, they are not even covering demand growth and remain small in absolute numbers. While the icons of transition are still clearly stuck in first gear, hydrocarbons are largely carrying the extra load, and they remain the backbone of global energy and the most reliable engine of prosperity.

So, in reality, this is not a true energy transition; it’s an energy addition which requires all hands on deck.

Second, this reality is why every major forecaster is revising scenarios, with oil and gas locked in for decades, which I hope is the green light for long-term investments in both.

Third, even in the Global North, the economic realities, technology limits, and public acceptance of the current transition plan are forcing some welcome policy U-turns. Very quiet U-turns, of course.

At Aramco, our strategy reflects this realistic outlook. We are determined to remain dominant in oil thanks to a massive resource base, low costs, and one of the lowest upstream carbon intensities across the industry.

We also see resilient demand, and the pressing need for long-term investments in supply is now widely accepted. So, our growth potential in oil remains large.

We are accelerating in gas, as we have some of the world largest reserves, including significant potential in unconventional gas. We also know that gas is the critical global shock absorber for unstable grids.

It ramps up in minutes, helps steady the system, and we expect demand to continue increasing.  That’s why we plan to increase our sales gas production capacity by more than 60 percent by 2030 compared to 2021 production levels.

And despite the current downturn, chemicals remain a key long-term growth area, with our proven strengths in both feedstocks and conversion.  Our exciting strategy also supports deeper emissions reductions.

We continue to deliver efficiency improvements, and are further reducing our upstream carbon and methane intensities. We are deploying AI at scale, backed by major investments in infrastructure and top talent, as well as a seven billion dollar venture capital program.

Ultimately, our focus is on value as we invest in technology development, AI, and digital solutions. In the last two years alone, we have successfully captured six billion dollars of technology realized value, with another two to four billion expected this year.

The same approach applies to our careful positioning in new energies, ready to scale up when commercially competitive. This balanced strategy is preparing us for a realistic future, delivering long-term value to our stakeholders and shareholders worldwide. 

Ladies and Gentlemen, the current transition plan has dug the world into quite a hole that will not be easy to escape from.

So if Churchill were writing the history of the energy transition, he would know this is not the end, nor even the beginning of the end. But he might say that shifting the narrative from hype to reality marked the end of the digging!

Because we must bridge the divergent understandings of the energy system the world needs. It is the only way to make durable progress. So, it is time for a path that takes us forward not backward, based on shared realities, so that everyone can travel together.

One that welcomes more energy from all sources. One that values abundance, security, and affordability, as well as sustainability.

And one that inspires us to collaborate on a global scale to deliver real progress for all. That is the realistic, balanced, and inclusive transition sweet spot the world needs.

And I believe it is now within our reach.

Thank you. 

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